Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems

Business & Finance, Economics, Public Finance, Finance & Investing, Banks & Banking, Macroeconomics
Cover of the book Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems by Catherine  Ms. Pattillo, Andrew Mr. Berg, Gian-Maria Mr. Milesi-Ferretti, Eduardo Mr. Borensztein, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
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Author: Catherine Ms. Pattillo, Andrew Mr. Berg, Gian-Maria Mr. Milesi-Ferretti, Eduardo Mr. Borensztein ISBN: 9781451983494
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Publication: January 24, 2000
Imprint: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Language: English
Author: Catherine Ms. Pattillo, Andrew Mr. Berg, Gian-Maria Mr. Milesi-Ferretti, Eduardo Mr. Borensztein
ISBN: 9781451983494
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication: January 24, 2000
Imprint: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Language: English
Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
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Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.

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