Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus

Testing the Effectiveness of US Government Stimulus Programs

Business & Finance, Economics, Public Finance, Macroeconomics
Cover of the book Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus by John J. Heim, Springer International Publishing
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Author: John J. Heim ISBN: 9783319459677
Publisher: Springer International Publishing Publication: December 8, 2016
Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan Language: English
Author: John J. Heim
ISBN: 9783319459677
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Publication: December 8, 2016
Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan
Language: English

This book presents overwhelming evidence that US government stimulus programs over the past fifty years have not worked. Using the best and most modern econometric testing models, it applies 228 separate hard science tests to examine the effects of different stimulus models that should, in theory, have shown positive results. By testing every possible alternative interpretation, starting with one time period and then retesting in three additional time periods, this definitive study finds that even when favoring pro-stimulus Keynesian models, public financing through government tax cuts and spending increase programs is more likely to drive down - or "crowd out" - as much private sector spending as it stimulates in the public sector.

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This book presents overwhelming evidence that US government stimulus programs over the past fifty years have not worked. Using the best and most modern econometric testing models, it applies 228 separate hard science tests to examine the effects of different stimulus models that should, in theory, have shown positive results. By testing every possible alternative interpretation, starting with one time period and then retesting in three additional time periods, this definitive study finds that even when favoring pro-stimulus Keynesian models, public financing through government tax cuts and spending increase programs is more likely to drive down - or "crowd out" - as much private sector spending as it stimulates in the public sector.

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