Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Social Science, Demography, Cultural Studies, Emigration & Immigration
Cover of the book Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by Jakub Bijak, Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Springer Netherlands
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Author: Jakub Bijak, Arkadiusz Wisniowski ISBN: 9789048188970
Publisher: Springer Netherlands Publication: October 23, 2010
Imprint: Springer Language: English
Author: Jakub Bijak, Arkadiusz Wisniowski
ISBN: 9789048188970
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Publication: October 23, 2010
Imprint: Springer
Language: English

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

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International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

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