Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries

Business & Finance, Economics, Money & Monetary Policy, International Economics, Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, Politics, Economic Policy
Cover of the book Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries by Jonathan Mr. Ostry, Abdul Mr. Abiad, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
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Author: Jonathan Mr. Ostry, Abdul Mr. Abiad ISBN: 9781452780610
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Publication: October 1, 2005
Imprint: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Language: English
Author: Jonathan Mr. Ostry, Abdul Mr. Abiad
ISBN: 9781452780610
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication: October 1, 2005
Imprint: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Language: English
This paper aims to put some constraints on the way primary surpluses are projected when making assessments of public debt sustainability. Projections should be tied either to the country's historical track record in generating surpluses-if the institutional and other factors accounting for this track record are expected to persist-or to some model that links primary surpluses to their fundamental determinants, either on the basis of constant institutions and policies or a credible reform program. History-based or model-based primary surplus projections provide a useful benchmark for judging the realism of fiscal forecasts underlying debt sustainability calculations. Together with information on future growth and interest rates, the primary surplus projections can be used to generate measures of overborrowing, and the magnitude of adjustment needed to return debt to a sustainable level.
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This paper aims to put some constraints on the way primary surpluses are projected when making assessments of public debt sustainability. Projections should be tied either to the country's historical track record in generating surpluses-if the institutional and other factors accounting for this track record are expected to persist-or to some model that links primary surpluses to their fundamental determinants, either on the basis of constant institutions and policies or a credible reform program. History-based or model-based primary surplus projections provide a useful benchmark for judging the realism of fiscal forecasts underlying debt sustainability calculations. Together with information on future growth and interest rates, the primary surplus projections can be used to generate measures of overborrowing, and the magnitude of adjustment needed to return debt to a sustainable level.

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