Scenario Thinking

A Historical Evolution of Strategic Foresight

Business & Finance, Human Resources & Personnel Management, Organizational Behavior, Management & Leadership, Planning & Forecasting
Cover of the book Scenario Thinking by R. Bradley MacKay, Peter McKiernan, Cambridge University Press
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Author: R. Bradley MacKay, Peter McKiernan ISBN: 9781108664318
Publisher: Cambridge University Press Publication: August 31, 2018
Imprint: Cambridge University Press Language: English
Author: R. Bradley MacKay, Peter McKiernan
ISBN: 9781108664318
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication: August 31, 2018
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Language: English

This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.

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This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.

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