Understanding Violence Through Social Media: Assessing Feasibility of Twitter Utilization in Conflict Prediction Using Messages Within Iraq, Extreme Negative Terminology Predicts Subsequent Violence

Nonfiction, History, Military, Computers
Cover of the book Understanding Violence Through Social Media: Assessing Feasibility of Twitter Utilization in Conflict Prediction Using Messages Within Iraq, Extreme Negative Terminology Predicts Subsequent Violence by Progressive Management, Progressive Management
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Progressive Management ISBN: 9780463189375
Publisher: Progressive Management Publication: July 6, 2018
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Progressive Management
ISBN: 9780463189375
Publisher: Progressive Management
Publication: July 6, 2018
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

This important December 2017 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

While social media analysis has been widely utilized to predict various market and political trends, its utilization to improve geospatial conflict prediction in contested environments remains understudied. To determine the feasibility of social media utilization in conflict prediction, we compared historical conflict data and social media metadata, utilizing over 829,537 geo-referenced messages sent through the Twitter network within Iraq from August 2013 to July 2014. From our research, we conclude that social media metadata has a positive impact on conflict prediction when compared with historical conflict data. Additionally, we find that utilizing the most extreme negative terminology from a locally derived social media lexicon provided the most significant predictive accuracy for determining areas that would experience subsequent violence. We suggest future research projects center on improving the conflict prediction capability of social media data and include social media analysis in operational assessments.

I. INTRODUCTION * II. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS AND MILITARY DOCTRINE * B. CONFLICT PREDICTION * C. METHODOLOGY SYNTHESIS * III. BACKGROUND—IRAQ * IV. RESEARCH METHODS * A. HYPOTHESIS * B. DATA AND METHODS * 1. Social Media * 2. Sentiment Dictionary * 3. Analysis Framework * 4. Dependent Variable * 5. Independent Variable * 6. Control Variables * C. REGRESSION ANALYSIS * V. RESULTS * A. FINDING ONE—TWITTER MATTERS * B. FINDING TWO—NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IMPROVES PREDICTIONS * C. FINDING THREE—EXTREME SENTIMENT MATTERS MORE * VI. ADDITIONAL RESEARCH * A. SENTIMENT FOLLOWING VIOLENT EVENTS * B. DOES THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT MATTER? * C. ARABIC LEXICONS AND TWITTER * VII. CONCLUSION

Social media continues to evolve as a means of sentiment sharing, communication, and social interaction. The interconnectedness of population groups continues to grow with the advancement of mobile device technology and the accessibility of Internet communication infrastructures. This medium provides a constant flow of social tendencies throughout 37 percent of the world's population, which are not limited to benign subjects but also include radical leanings and other forms of social unrest. Analyzing social media trends in key locations of strategic concern could provide an additional tool for conflict prediction.3 Additionally, examining the relationship between social media sentiments and violent events could allow decision makers to be proactive and less reactionary.

Why is this important? Human domain dynamics constantly shift, so the requirement to seek new and inventive ways to gather intelligence on those shifts is imperative. Moreover, the environments where human intelligence is needed most are often the hardest to access physically. The lack of real-time human intelligence in locations with limited access is therefore a serious problem. However, advances in communication technology have also produced new means for maintaining situational awareness. This research seeks to provide insight into human sentiment through social media analysis as a viable solution to this problem. Once we understand the relationship between sentiment and violence in a particular conflict, we can operationalize solutions to curb the occurrence of violence through conflict resolution.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This important December 2017 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

While social media analysis has been widely utilized to predict various market and political trends, its utilization to improve geospatial conflict prediction in contested environments remains understudied. To determine the feasibility of social media utilization in conflict prediction, we compared historical conflict data and social media metadata, utilizing over 829,537 geo-referenced messages sent through the Twitter network within Iraq from August 2013 to July 2014. From our research, we conclude that social media metadata has a positive impact on conflict prediction when compared with historical conflict data. Additionally, we find that utilizing the most extreme negative terminology from a locally derived social media lexicon provided the most significant predictive accuracy for determining areas that would experience subsequent violence. We suggest future research projects center on improving the conflict prediction capability of social media data and include social media analysis in operational assessments.

I. INTRODUCTION * II. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS AND MILITARY DOCTRINE * B. CONFLICT PREDICTION * C. METHODOLOGY SYNTHESIS * III. BACKGROUND—IRAQ * IV. RESEARCH METHODS * A. HYPOTHESIS * B. DATA AND METHODS * 1. Social Media * 2. Sentiment Dictionary * 3. Analysis Framework * 4. Dependent Variable * 5. Independent Variable * 6. Control Variables * C. REGRESSION ANALYSIS * V. RESULTS * A. FINDING ONE—TWITTER MATTERS * B. FINDING TWO—NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IMPROVES PREDICTIONS * C. FINDING THREE—EXTREME SENTIMENT MATTERS MORE * VI. ADDITIONAL RESEARCH * A. SENTIMENT FOLLOWING VIOLENT EVENTS * B. DOES THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT MATTER? * C. ARABIC LEXICONS AND TWITTER * VII. CONCLUSION

Social media continues to evolve as a means of sentiment sharing, communication, and social interaction. The interconnectedness of population groups continues to grow with the advancement of mobile device technology and the accessibility of Internet communication infrastructures. This medium provides a constant flow of social tendencies throughout 37 percent of the world's population, which are not limited to benign subjects but also include radical leanings and other forms of social unrest. Analyzing social media trends in key locations of strategic concern could provide an additional tool for conflict prediction.3 Additionally, examining the relationship between social media sentiments and violent events could allow decision makers to be proactive and less reactionary.

Why is this important? Human domain dynamics constantly shift, so the requirement to seek new and inventive ways to gather intelligence on those shifts is imperative. Moreover, the environments where human intelligence is needed most are often the hardest to access physically. The lack of real-time human intelligence in locations with limited access is therefore a serious problem. However, advances in communication technology have also produced new means for maintaining situational awareness. This research seeks to provide insight into human sentiment through social media analysis as a viable solution to this problem. Once we understand the relationship between sentiment and violence in a particular conflict, we can operationalize solutions to curb the occurrence of violence through conflict resolution.

More books from Progressive Management

Cover of the book Preparing for the Future: The Regional Alignment of U.S. Army Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs) - Capacity Building, Alliance Building, Lessons Learned, Joint Doctrine, Strategy and Tactics by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 2014 President Barack Obama's Speech to the United Nations about the Islamic State (IS) and America's War Against ISIS / ISIL Terrorism, Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Palestine, Ebola Outbreak by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The U.S. Air Service in World War I: The Final Report and A Tactical History - Sopwith Camel, Haviland, Eddie Rickenbacker, Observation Balloons, Pursuit Tactics, Handley-Page, Spad Planes by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Adult Cancer Sourcebook: Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) - Clinical Data for Patients, Families, and Physicians by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Mosul Dam in Iraq: The Most Dangerous Dam in the World - Government Reports and Background, Catastrophic Threat from ISIS/ISIL Islamic Terrorists, Technical Data, American Funded Work by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Complete Guide to Baluchistan: Baluchi Cultural Orientation, Balochistan, Southwestern Province of Pakistan, Strategic Importance, Nationalism and Separatist Struggle, Baruchi and Brahui, Gwadar by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The Archer's Tale: An Examination of English Archers During the Hundred Years War and Their Impact on Warfare and Society - Medieval England's Use of Large Infantry Formations with Longbows by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Application of Advances in Telemedicine for Long-Duration Space Flight: Robotic Telepresence and Teletrauma Support, Body Sensors, Security, Field Testing on Mt. Everest, Video Consultations by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Pocket Guide to the U.S. Air Force Academy (USAFA) - Admissions, Academic and Athletic Programs, Cadet Life, History, Catalog by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Lessons Encountered: Learning from the Long War - Afghanistan and Iraq, Taliban, al-Qaeda, Hillary Clinton, President Bush, Cheney, Petraeus, Powell, Rice, Obama, Saddam Hussein, Historical Timelines by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Shooting the Moon: How NASA Found Water on the Moon, the LCROSS Mission - Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite - Managing Success, Bad Day, Lunacy, Stakeholders, Having a Lasting Impact by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The United States Strategic Bombing Survey: The Effects of Atomic Bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, June 30, 1946 - Casualties, Radiation Disease, Japanese Decision to Surrender by Progressive Management
Cover of the book National Policies for Military Unmanned Systems that Implement Joint Fires Missions: Aircraft Systems, Armed Drones, Research Priorities, Historical Analogies, Strategic Options for Counterterrorism by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Ethiopia in Perspective: Orientation Guide and Cultural Orientation: Geography, History, Economy, Religion, Dynasties, Folklore, Military, Relations with Neighbors, Terrorist Groups, Secessionists by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Naval Mines in the 21st Century: Can NATO Navies Meet the Challenge? Sea Mines, Danger to Shipping, Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCS), Mine Warfare and Countermeasures (MCM), New Technology Mines by Progressive Management
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy