Why the Weak Win Wars: A Study of the Factors That Drive Strategy in Asymmetric Conflict - Analysis of U.S. Involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq War, Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan, Vietnam War

Nonfiction, History, Military, Vietnam War, Asian
Cover of the book Why the Weak Win Wars: A Study of the Factors That Drive Strategy in Asymmetric Conflict - Analysis of U.S. Involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq War, Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan, Vietnam War by Progressive Management, Progressive Management
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Progressive Management ISBN: 9781311002037
Publisher: Progressive Management Publication: May 31, 2016
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Progressive Management
ISBN: 9781311002037
Publisher: Progressive Management
Publication: May 31, 2016
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This report builds on the research and ideas of the school of thought that believes strategy is the most important factor in predicting war outcomes. One shortcoming of that school is the inability to explain why strong actors would implement a strategy that does not provide the highest probability of victory. This project uses a game theoretic model to illustrate how a seemingly non-optimal strategy may be rational for initial phases of the conflict. However, this rationale does not apply beyond initial stages of conflict. To explain non-optimal strategy selection in prolonged conflicts, this project analyzes strategy drivers—factors that influence strategy selection and implementation. Probability of victory is only one of the factors found to influence strategy implementation. Other than probability of victory, this study finds that the institutional predisposition of a military is the most important because it is the most consistent and the most controllable by the military. With this conceptual basis, the project analyzes U.S. involvement in Afghanistan since 2001. It also takes a cursory look at U.S. operations in Iraq since 2003, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. The model and case studies illustrate a U.S. military institutional predisposition with an excessive disposition towards direct attack. As such, this thesis recommends taking action to provide the U.S. military with a more neutral institutional predisposition.

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. AVOIDANCE IS NOT AN OPTION * B. NEED FOR A THEORY * C. THESIS * CHAPTER II - REVIEW OF WAR OUTCOME EXPLANATIONS * CHAPTER III - A CLOSER LOOK AT ARREGUIN-TOFT * A. STRONG AND WEAK * B. DIRECT ATTACK * C. INDIRECT ATTACK * D. DIRECT DEFENSE * E. INDIRECT DEFENSE * F. SHORTCOMINGS * CHAPTER IV - GAME THEORETIC MODEL * A. ORDINAL VALUES FOR STRONG ACTORS * B. ORDINAL VALUES FOR WEAK ACTORS * C. THE RESULTING GAME * D. PREDICTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS FROM THE GAME * CHAPTER V - STRATEGY DRIVERS * A. DESCRIPTION OF FACTORS THAT DRIVE STRATEGY * B. RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF STRATEGY FACTORS * CHAPTER VI - AFGHANISTAN CASE STUDY * A. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #1 * B. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #2 * C. ATTEMPTED STRATEGIC INTERACTION #3 * CHAPTER VII - OTHER CONFLICTS AT A GLANCE * A. OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM * B. USSR IN AFGHANISTAN * C. U.S. INTERACTIONS IN VIETNAM * D. INSIGHTS FROM CASE STUDIES * CHAPTER VIII - DISCUSSION * CHAPTER IX - RECOMMENDATIONS * CHAPTER X - CONCLUSION

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This report builds on the research and ideas of the school of thought that believes strategy is the most important factor in predicting war outcomes. One shortcoming of that school is the inability to explain why strong actors would implement a strategy that does not provide the highest probability of victory. This project uses a game theoretic model to illustrate how a seemingly non-optimal strategy may be rational for initial phases of the conflict. However, this rationale does not apply beyond initial stages of conflict. To explain non-optimal strategy selection in prolonged conflicts, this project analyzes strategy drivers—factors that influence strategy selection and implementation. Probability of victory is only one of the factors found to influence strategy implementation. Other than probability of victory, this study finds that the institutional predisposition of a military is the most important because it is the most consistent and the most controllable by the military. With this conceptual basis, the project analyzes U.S. involvement in Afghanistan since 2001. It also takes a cursory look at U.S. operations in Iraq since 2003, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. The model and case studies illustrate a U.S. military institutional predisposition with an excessive disposition towards direct attack. As such, this thesis recommends taking action to provide the U.S. military with a more neutral institutional predisposition.

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. AVOIDANCE IS NOT AN OPTION * B. NEED FOR A THEORY * C. THESIS * CHAPTER II - REVIEW OF WAR OUTCOME EXPLANATIONS * CHAPTER III - A CLOSER LOOK AT ARREGUIN-TOFT * A. STRONG AND WEAK * B. DIRECT ATTACK * C. INDIRECT ATTACK * D. DIRECT DEFENSE * E. INDIRECT DEFENSE * F. SHORTCOMINGS * CHAPTER IV - GAME THEORETIC MODEL * A. ORDINAL VALUES FOR STRONG ACTORS * B. ORDINAL VALUES FOR WEAK ACTORS * C. THE RESULTING GAME * D. PREDICTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS FROM THE GAME * CHAPTER V - STRATEGY DRIVERS * A. DESCRIPTION OF FACTORS THAT DRIVE STRATEGY * B. RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF STRATEGY FACTORS * CHAPTER VI - AFGHANISTAN CASE STUDY * A. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #1 * B. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #2 * C. ATTEMPTED STRATEGIC INTERACTION #3 * CHAPTER VII - OTHER CONFLICTS AT A GLANCE * A. OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM * B. USSR IN AFGHANISTAN * C. U.S. INTERACTIONS IN VIETNAM * D. INSIGHTS FROM CASE STUDIES * CHAPTER VIII - DISCUSSION * CHAPTER IX - RECOMMENDATIONS * CHAPTER X - CONCLUSION

More books from Progressive Management

Cover of the book Delta II & III Space Operations at Cape Canaveral 1989-2009, Origins, Military Missions, Civil Missions, Commercial Missions by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Apollo and America's Moon Landing Program - Oral Histories of Managers, Engineers, and Workers (Set 3) - including Jay Greene, Griffin, Milt Heflin, Holloway, Jeffs, Kelly (Lunar Module Manager) by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The Evolution of Time Sensitive Targeting: Operation Iraqi Freedom Results and Lessons - Desert Storm, Enduring Freedom, CENTCOM Definitions, Future Trends, Adversary Focus on Asymmetric Operations by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Cyberspace Command and Control Model: The Nature of Cyberspace, Computer Networks, Information Environment, Internet, Data Manipulation, Legal Authorities, Cyber Attack, Cybernetics, Systems Theory by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Marshall Center Reports: China's Foreign Policy Grand Strategy, Western Unity and Transatlantic, Counter-terrorism, International Law, Europe's Military in the 21st Century, Police Primacy by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute (PKSOI) Papers - Mass Atrocity Prevention and Response Options (MAPRO): A Policy Planning Handbook - Stopping Genocide by Progressive Management
Cover of the book People's Liberation Army After Next: China's PLA, Air Force Aircraft, Ballistic and Cruise Missiles, EMP, DF-11, DF-15, Silkworm, Fighter Aircraft, Taiwan, Advanced Technology, Military Space by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Atmosphere of Freedom: 70 Years at the NASA Ames Research Center - Pioneer, Galileo Jupiter Probe, Kepler, Apollo, Space Shuttle, Planetary Sciences, Space Life Sciences, plus 2012 ASAP Annual Report by Progressive Management
Cover of the book NASA Space Shuttle Program Tacit Knowledge Capture Project: Oral Histories from Twenty Program Officials and Managers, Challenger and Columbia Accident Insights and Lessons Learned by Progressive Management
Cover of the book With the 1st Marine Division in Desert Shield and Desert Storm: U.S. Marines in the Persian Gulf, 1990-1991 - Khafji, Weapons Systems, Combat Engineer Breaching Equipment, Training with Saudi Army by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Nuclear Fuel and Waste: The Report of the Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future, Senate Hearings, Comprehensive Information on Yucca Mountain, Fukushima, Reactors, Radiation Issues by Progressive Management
Cover of the book People's Republic of China Controversies: People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Communist Party, Web Attacks, Internet Censorship, Trade Disputes, Debt and Bond Holdings, Renminbi (RMB) Yuan Valuation by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Chinese Cyber Warfare: China's Cyber Incursions, Strategic Method, Information Warfare Threat - Mandiant Report, Unit 61398, Henry Kissinger, Quantum Computing by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Geothermal Energy: A History of Geothermal Energy Research and Development in the United States - Volume 2 - Drilling 1976-2006 by Progressive Management
Cover of the book What's in a Name: A Comparative Analysis of the United States' Real ID Act and the United Kingdom's National Identity Scheme - Combating Terrorism, Identity Theft, Illegal Work and Benefit Fraud by Progressive Management
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy